数据与计算发展前沿 ›› 2021, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (2): 4-15.

doi: 10.11871/jfdc.issn.2096-742X.2021.02.002

• 管理决策与智能应用专刊 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于新一代信息技术支撑智能化宏观决策的方法与实践

吴静1,2(),张凤1,2,*(),刘峰1(),刘昌新1,2(),朱永彬1,2()   

  1. 1.中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190
    2.中国科学院大学公共政策与管理学院,北京 100049
  • 收稿日期:2021-03-01 出版日期:2021-04-20 发布日期:2021-05-18
  • 通讯作者: 张凤
  • 作者简介:吴静, 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,研究员,战略咨询院政策模拟中心主任。从事数字经济与数字化转型战略研究,以及宏观经济政策模拟与分析工作。先后承担和参与国家重点计划项目、国家自然科学基金项目、国家社科基金青项目、中国科学院科技先导专项项目课题、中科院知识创新工程项目课题等20余项研究任务。发表学术论文50余篇,出版专著或合著8部。
    本文承担工作为：智能化决策支持系统架构研究。
    WU Jing is a professor of the Institutes of Science and Develop-ment (ISD), Chinese Academy of Sciences, and director of the Policy Modeling and Simulation Center of the ISD. She has long been engaged in the research of digital economy and digital transformation strategies, and the simulation and analysis of macroeconomic policies. She has undertaken and participated in more than 20 research tasks including the National Basic Research Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Social Science Foundation of China, the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Knowledge Innovation Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, etc. She has published more than 50 papers and 8 monographs or co-authors.
    In this paper, she is responsible for the research on the archite-cture of intelligent decision support system.
    E-mail: wujing@casisd.cn|张凤, 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,副院长,研究员。主要从事科技发展战略研究、创新政策研究和现代化研究等。主要参加和承担国家高端智库课题、国家社科基金课题、中国科学院战略研究专项等。代表性工作包括参与组织完成“中国至2050年重要领域科技发展路线图研究”,发表“知识创新的原理和路径”和“世界现代化指数1950-2010”等。
    本文承担工作为：智库双螺旋结构理论及全文研究统筹设计。
    ZHANG Feng, Professor, is the deputy director of the Institutes of Science and Development of Chinese Academy of Sciences. Her main research fields include the strategy of S&T, innovation policy and modernization study etc. She mainly undertakes and participates in research projects supported by the Program of China Top Think Tanks, the National Social Science Fund of China, the Strategy Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences etc. Her representatives include the organization of “Science & Technology in China: A Roadmap to 2050”, the articles of “The principle and route of knowledge innovation” and “World modernization indexes 1950 to 2010”, etc.
    In this paper, she is responsible for the theory of think tank double helix structure and overall research framework design.
    E-mail：fzhang@casisd.cn|刘峰,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,研究员,享受国务院特殊津贴专家,主要从事科技创新政策、产业技术创新、高新技术产业园区等研究。在《人民日报内部参阅》、《改革》和《中国工业经济》等刊物发表文章20多篇。向国务院报送调研报告10多篇。先后获得国家中长期科学和技术发展规划纲要领导小组表彰,教育部优秀学术著作二等奖,北京市科学技术三等奖,中国社科院优秀学术著作奖。
    本文承担工作为：智能化决策支持系统理论研究。
    LIU Feng is a research fellow in the Institute of Science and Technology Strategy Consulting, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and an expert enjoying special subsidy from the State Council. He is mainly engaged in the research of science and technology innovation policy, industrial technology innovation, high-tech industrial park, etc.
    In this paper, he is responsible for the theoretical research on intelligent decision support system.
    E-mail: liufeng@casisd.cn|刘昌新, 中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,副研究员,主要研究方向为政策模拟、产业数字化转型、新型基础设施建设等。
    本文承担工作为：宏观决策支持应用实践研究。
    LIU Changxin is an associate professor at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interests cover policy modeling, industrial digital transformation, new infrastructure construction, etc.
    In this paper, he is responsible for the application of macro decision support.
    E-mail: liuchangxin@casisd.cn|朱永彬,中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,副研究员,主要研究方向为数字科技与数字经济发展战略、产业数字化转型、智慧化管理决策等。
    本文承担工作为：智能化宏观决策新需求研究。
    ZHU Yongbin is an associate professor at the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interests cover development strategy of digital scien-tech and digital economy, industrial digital transformation, intelligent management & decision making, etc.
    In this paper, he is responsible for the research on demands of intelligent macro-decision making.
    E-mail: zhuyongbin@casisd.cn

Research and Practice of Intelligent Macro Decision Support Based on New Generation of Information Technology

WU Jing1,2(),ZHANG Feng1,2,*(),LIU Feng1(),LIU Changxin1,2(),ZHU Yongbin1,2()   

  1. 1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-03-01 Online:2021-04-20 Published:2021-05-18
  • Contact: ZHANG Feng

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摘要：

【目的】开展新一代信息技术支撑智能化宏观决策的方法与实践研究,有助于为智能化宏观决策系统的建设提供理论和应用借鉴,是实现宏观决策科学化的重要基础。【方法】通过对新一代信息技术发展下智能化宏观决策新需求的分析,提出了以智库研究双螺旋结构为基础的智能化宏观决策支持系统架构,梳理了宏观决策支持系统应用的三类场景。【结果】随着新一代信息技术的发展,为满足宏观决策对问题解决的科学性、复杂性、敏捷性、友好性新需求,智能化宏观决策支持系统将包含四层核心架构：资料汇聚层在问题导向下采集宏观决策各子问题的相关资料,汇聚形成多源异构资料库;知识融合层在多学科交叉支撑下为决策服务构建集问题历史经验、现实状态、未来发展协调统一的知识和模型体系;集成评估层以模拟评估和专家评估为支撑,对事物发展趋势和多维度影响及其技术可行性和政策可行性展开综合分析,迭代优化形成问题解决方案;交互决策层为决策者访问支持系统各层服务提供多种终端的、可视化的、友好的交互环境。智能化宏观决策支持将分别支撑各类决策主体的战略决策、战术决策、运行决策需求。【结论】智能化宏观决策支持系统将成为提高我国宏观决策精确性、科学性,实现治理能力现代化的重要支撑。

关键词: 宏观决策, 智能化决策支持系统, 新一代信息技术, 决策剧场

Abstract:

[Objective] Research on intelligent macro decision support based on the new generation of information technology provides the theoretical and application assistance for the construction of intelligent macro-decision-making support systems, and is an important foundation for scientific macro-decision-making. [Methods] Based on the analysis of the new demands for intelligent macro decision-making under the development of the new generation of information technology, an intelligent macro decision support system architecture based on the double helix structure of think tank research is proposed, and three types of macro decision support system application scenarios are recognized. [Results] In order to meet the requirements in scientific merits, complexity, agility, and user-friendliness of macro decision-making, the intelligent macro decision support system covers four layers. The data collection layer collects relevant data on each sub-problem of macro-decision-making under the problem-oriented guidance, and aggregates them to form a multi-source heterogeneous database. The knowledge and model layer, under the multidisciplinary support, aims to build a knowledge and model system coordinating historical experience, the current state and the future development of the decision-making problem. The integrated assessment layer is supported by simulation evaluation and expert evaluation, which comprehensively analyzes the development trends and multi-dimensional influence of decision-making problems in terms of technical feasibility and policy feasibility, and forms problem solutions through iterative optimization. The interactive decision-making layer is the interface for accessing the service of each layer via a multi-terminal, visual, and user-friendly interactive environment. Macro decision support can meet the strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making needs of different decision makers. [Conclusions] The intelligent macro decision support system will become an important foundation for improving the accuracy and scientific property of national macro decision making and realizing the modernization of governance capabilities.

Key words: macro decision, intelligent decision support system, new generation of information technology, decision theater