Frontiers of Data and Computing ›› 2021, Vol. 3 ›› Issue (2): 4-15.doi: 10.11871/jfdc.issn.2096-742X.2021.02.002

• Special Issue: Management Decision and Intelligent Applications • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Research and Practice of Intelligent Macro Decision Support Based on New Generation of Information Technology

WU Jing1,2(),ZHANG Feng1,2,*(),LIU Feng1(),LIU Changxin1,2(),ZHU Yongbin1,2()   

  1. 1. Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
    2. School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2021-03-01 Online:2021-04-20 Published:2021-05-18
  • Contact: ZHANG Feng E-mail:wujing@casisd.cn;fzhang@casisd.cn;liufeng@casisd.cn;liuchangxin@casisd.cn;zhuyongbin@casisd.cn

Abstract:

[Objective] Research on intelligent macro decision support based on the new generation of information technology provides the theoretical and application assistance for the construction of intelligent macro-decision-making support systems, and is an important foundation for scientific macro-decision-making. [Methods] Based on the analysis of the new demands for intelligent macro decision-making under the development of the new generation of information technology, an intelligent macro decision support system architecture based on the double helix structure of think tank research is proposed, and three types of macro decision support system application scenarios are recognized. [Results] In order to meet the requirements in scientific merits, complexity, agility, and user-friendliness of macro decision-making, the intelligent macro decision support system covers four layers. The data collection layer collects relevant data on each sub-problem of macro-decision-making under the problem-oriented guidance, and aggregates them to form a multi-source heterogeneous database. The knowledge and model layer, under the multidisciplinary support, aims to build a knowledge and model system coordinating historical experience, the current state and the future development of the decision-making problem. The integrated assessment layer is supported by simulation evaluation and expert evaluation, which comprehensively analyzes the development trends and multi-dimensional influence of decision-making problems in terms of technical feasibility and policy feasibility, and forms problem solutions through iterative optimization. The interactive decision-making layer is the interface for accessing the service of each layer via a multi-terminal, visual, and user-friendly interactive environment. Macro decision support can meet the strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making needs of different decision makers. [Conclusions] The intelligent macro decision support system will become an important foundation for improving the accuracy and scientific property of national macro decision making and realizing the modernization of governance capabilities.

Key words: macro decision, intelligent decision support system, new generation of information technology, decision theater