数据与计算发展前沿 ›› 2026, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (5): 190-201.

CSTR: 32002.14.jfdc.CN10-1649/TP.2026.05.015

doi: 10.11871/jfdc.issn.2096-742X.2026.05.015

• 技术与应用 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于层次分析法的煤炭供应链风险评估研究

蒋立翔1(),高满达2,高思远2,刘家瑞2,李学恩3,*()   

  1. 1 中国神华能源股份有限公司， 北京 100011
    2 国家能源集团新能源技术研究院有限公司， 北京 102209
    3 中国科学院自动化研究所， 北京 100190
  • 收稿日期:2025-10-20 出版日期:2026-10-20 发布日期:2026-10-20
  • 通讯作者: *李学恩（E-mail: xueen.li@ia.ac.cn）
  • 作者简介:蒋立翔，中国神华能源股份有限公司，正高级工程师，博士，研究方向为煤化工、智慧能源。
    本文主要承担工作为方法的提出和实现。
    JIANG Lixiang, Ph.D., is a professorate senior engineer at China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd. His research interests include coal chemical engineering and smart energy.
    In this paper, he is mainly responsible for proposing and implementing the method. E-mail: lixiang.jiang@ceic.com|李学恩，中国科学院自动化研究所，研究员，主要研究方向为博弈与决策智能。
    本文主要承担工作为写作指导以及论文最终审定。
    LI Xueen is currently a professor at the Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences. His research interests include game theory and decision intelligence.
    In this paper, he is mainly responsible for providing guidance on manuscript preparation and approving the final version of the paper. E-mail: xueen.li@ia.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家能源集团科技创新项目资助(GJNY-23-176)

Research on Risk Assessment of Coal Supply Chain Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

JIANG Lixiang1(),GAO Manda2,GAO Siyuan2,LIU Jiarui2,LI Xueen3,*()   

  1. 1 China Shenhua Energy Co., Ltd, Beijing 100011, China
    2 CHN Energy New Energy Technology Research Institute Co., Ltd, Beijing 102209, China
    3 Institute of Automation, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
  • Received:2025-10-20 Online:2026-10-20 Published:2026-10-20

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摘要：

【目的】构建面向煤炭供应链的多层级动态风险评估系统，解决传统方法难以量化多源风险耦合效应的问题，为企业提供风险决策支持工具。【文献范围】本文综合分析了能源供应链风险管理领域10篇文献。【方法】采用层次分析混合评估架构，设计多场景仿真模块，支持单风险单环节至多风险多环节四种评估模式，并通过一致性检验与敏感性分析验证系统鲁棒性。【结果】系统在多风险耦合仿真场景下可成功识别关键风险因素,模型通过扰动测试验证了参数鲁棒性。【结论】本研究建立的风险评估系统实现了煤炭供应链多环节风险分层量化，可灵活应对不同风险分析需求，为行业提供可复用的方法论框架。

关键词: 层次分析法, 风险评估, 煤炭供应链

Abstract:

[Objective] This paper addresses the issues in constructing a multi-level dynamic risk assessment system for coal supply chains. The challenges of quantifying the coupling effects of multi-source risks in traditional methods are studied and a risk decision support tool is provided for enterprises. [Literature Scope] The paper comprehensively analyzes 10 publications in the field of energy supply chain risk management. [Methods] An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based hybrid evaluation framework is adopted, incorporating a multi-scenario simulation module. The system supports four assessment modes, from single-risk-single-link to multi-risk-holistic evaluations, and its robustness is verified through consistency testing and sensitivity analysis. [Results] The system identifies key risk factors under multi-risk coupling simulation scenarios, and the robustness of the model parameters is verified through perturbation testing. [Conclusions] The proposed coal supply chain risk assessment system enables hierarchical quantification of risks across multiple supply chain segments, adapts flexibly to diverse risk analysis requirements, and provides a reusable methodological framework for the coal industry.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process, risk assessment, coal supply chain