数据与计算发展前沿 ›› 2026, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (2): 250-261.

CSTR: 32002.14.jfdc.CN10-1649/TP.2026.02.019

doi: 10.11871/jfdc.issn.2096-742X.2026.02.019

• 技术与应用 • 上一篇    

网络主题的共同周期长度对主题间触发的影响机理及预测

徐翔*(),宋雨萱   

  1. 同济大学， 艺术与传媒学院大数据与计算传播研究中心， 上海 201804
  • 收稿日期:2025-08-10 出版日期:2026-04-20 发布日期:2026-04-23
  • 通讯作者: *徐翔（E-mail:xuxiang210089@163.com）
  • 作者简介:徐翔，同济大学艺术与传媒学院长聘教授、副院长，主要研究方向为社交媒体挖掘。
    本文主要承担工作为设计研究方法，文本数据挖掘，论文的修改与审定。
    XU Xiang is a Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Arts and Media, Tongji University. His main research direction is social media mining.
    In this paper, he is mainly responsible for research method design, text data mining, and revision and final review of the paper.
    E-mail: xuxiang210089@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金(71804126);国家社科基金项目(24FXWB039)

The Impact Mechanism and Prediction of Common Cyclic Length Characteristics of Online Topics on Inter-Topic Triggering

XU Xiang*(),SONG Yuxuan   

  1. Research Center for Big Data and Computational Communication, School of Arts and Media, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China
  • Received:2025-08-10 Online:2026-04-20 Published:2026-04-23

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摘要：

【目的】 网络主题具有的周期长度及其同频特征是否以及在何种程度上影响到主题之间的触发，是在舆论调控引导中尚缺乏足够关注的理论问题与实践问题。【方法】 通过功率谱分析与红噪声检验提取各主题具有显著性的频率及其对应的周期长度，进而分析主题的周期“同频”对于主题间触发的影响作用。【结果】 主题是否具有共同周期长度、共同具有何种特定长度的周期，对主题间触发具有明显的影响和预测作用。【结论】 舆论中以什么样的波长、振动模式来“重复”信息比单纯大批量“狂轰滥炸”地复制信息更为重要，需要思考具有怎样的“脉冲”规律的某个议题如何对舆论场其他议题产生尽可能大的冲击。

关键词: 周期长度, 功率谱, 红噪声, 主题触发, 格兰杰因果分析

Abstract:

[Purpose] Whether and to what extent the common cycle lengths of online topics affect the triggering between topics is a theoretical and practical problem that requires more attention. [Method] This paper employs power spectrum analysis and red noise test to extract all significant cycle lengths of each topic. Furthermore, to examine the impact and predictive role of shared cycle lengths on triggering between paired topics. [Results] Whether topics share common cycle lengths, and what specific cycle lengths they share, has significant effects on and predictive value for inter-topic triggering. [Conclusion] It is more important to study what wavelengths and vibration patterns are used to “repeat” information in public opinion than simply copying information in large quantities. It is also necessary to consider how a certain issue with a certain pattern of “pulse” can have the greatest impact and linkage on other issues in the entire public opinion field.

Key words: cycle length, power spectrum, red noise test, topic trigger, Granger causality