Abstract:

[Objective] This paper addresses the issues in constructing a multi-level dynamic risk assessment system for coal supply chains. The challenges of quantifying the coupling effects of multi-source risks in traditional methods are studied and a risk decision support tool is provided for enterprises. [Literature Scope] The paper comprehensively analyzes 10 publications in the field of energy supply chain risk management. [Methods] An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-based hybrid evaluation framework is adopted, incorporating a multi-scenario simulation module. The system supports four assessment modes, from single-risk-single-link to multi-risk-holistic evaluations, and its robustness is verified through consistency testing and sensitivity analysis. [Results] The system identifies key risk factors under multi-risk coupling simulation scenarios, and the robustness of the model parameters is verified through perturbation testing. [Conclusions] The proposed coal supply chain risk assessment system enables hierarchical quantification of risks across multiple supply chain segments, adapts flexibly to diverse risk analysis requirements, and provides a reusable methodological framework for the coal industry.

Key words: analytic hierarchy process, risk assessment, coal supply chain